Tesla shares
Investment Thesis
Tesla's 180x P/E valuation is entirely predicated on unproven AI/robotics ambitions while the core EV business deteriorates with two consecutive years of declining sales and operating margins compressed to 4.2%. At $390.82, the stock trades near Morningstar's $400 fair value which assumes flawless execution across robotaxis, Optimus robots, and $25B annual AI capex—creating asymmetric downside as reality diverges from expectations.
Catalysts to Watch
Q2 delivery numbers, robotaxi regulatory approvals, operating margin trajectory, energy storage deployment data, Optimus factory construction updates, SpaceX merger developments
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]
Timeline
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