20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT printed a fresh 52-week low at $83.66 on May 15 with volume exploding to 50.7M — 2.5× the 20-day average — while RSI collapsed to 28.66 and the TLT/SPY ratio RSI hit an extreme 8.05, a near-unprecedented reading that historically signals selling exhaustion and a contrarian mean-reversion bounce toward the 50-day SMA.
Catalysts to Watch
On May 15, TLT set a new 52-week low at $83.66 with a volume spike to 50.7M shares (vs ~20M average), RSI(14) dropped to 28.66, and the TLT/SPY relative strength ratio RSI reached 8.05 — conditions consistent with a selling climax.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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