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GDX LONG Mean Reversion

VanEck Gold Miners ETF

Completed
Progress to Target
Current
Entry
$85.79
Target
$100.00
Stop Loss
$76.00
Potential
R/R
1.5:1

Investment Thesis

GDX crashed 30%+ in 13 sessions, pushing RSI to 29 and testing the 200-day SMA — a deeply oversold mean-reversion setup within an intact long-term uptrend, with risk/reward of ~1.5:1 back toward the 50-day SMA at $100.

Catalysts to Watch

GDX fell from $115.34 (March 2) to a low of $78.74 (March 20) — a 30%+ crash in 13 sessions — before stabilizing above the 200-day SMA; RSI collapsed to 29, market breadth RSI hit 27, and index put/call ratio spiked to 1.21, all signaling seller exhaustion.

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Timeline

Result
Target Reached
Gross Return
+17.79%
Close
$101.06
Date
2026-04-08
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