iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor
Investment Thesis
SOXX printed a ~2.5–3.5× average-volume capitulation washout on July 29 ($465 close, 18.8M shares) that has since recovered forcefully to $542. Long-term structure (golden cross, +30.6% above 200-day MA) is intact; MACD histogram has turned positive; R:R from current price to prior peak is 3.65:1 with stop below $500.
Catalysts to Watch
July 29 climactic high-volume selling (18.8M shares, ~2.5–3.5× average daily volume) closed at $465 — establishing a sharp washout low. Aug 4 confirmed absorption with a +6.8% recovery day on 10.9M volume ($507→$542). MACD histogram turned positive (+2.29), crossing above the signal line for the first time since the correction began.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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