20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT is pressing against its 52-week low ($83.02) with RSI at 20.9 — extreme oversold territory that rarely persists. A bullish RSI/MACD divergence and contracting sell-side volume point to a short-term mean-reversion bounce toward the SMA50 at $85.08, offering a ~3.3:1 reward/risk ratio.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT declined -4.7% over 4 weeks to test its 52-week low at $83.02, driving RSI(14) to an extreme oversold reading of 20.9 while a bullish RSI/MACD divergence signal was detected on July 24
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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