20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT hit a 52-week low with capitulation-volume and the TLT/SPY ratio RSI crashed to 4.52 — one of the most extreme oversold readings possible for relative performance. A tactical mean-reversion bounce toward the 50-day SMA (~$86) is the higher-probability near-term path, though the structural death-cross trend remains firmly intact.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT touched its 52-week low of $83.02 on May 19 with a volume surge (~35M shares), bounced, and the TLT/SPY ratio RSI collapsed to an extreme reading of 4.52 — signaling maximum relative exhaustion of bonds vs. equities.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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