JETS has surged ~25% in one month primarily on the U.S.-Iran deal framework narrative, yet the NYT reports airfares are unlikely to fall for 3-4 months as operational costs are already locked in, meaning the rally has front-run actual earnings relief. With IATA having slashed 2026 profit forecasts nearly in half to $23B and airlines absorbing 30-50% of a $98B fuel cost increase with no hedging buffers, the current price reflects an overly optimistic scenario that fundamentals cannot yet support. A mean reversion toward the pre-breakout consolidation zone around $27.50-$28.00 is likely as the market reprices the lag between the geopolitical catalyst and realized margin improvement.