20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT is pressing against its 52-week low of $83.97 while the TLT/SPY ratio RSI has collapsed to an extreme 7.65 — one of the most oversold relative readings bonds have seen vs equities in years. A counter-trend mean-reversion bounce toward the $86.63–$87.00 SMA50 zone is the setup, with a tight stop below the annual floor.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT closed at $84.80 — just 0.99% above its 52-week low of $83.97 — while the TLT/SPY relative strength ratio RSI collapsed to 7.65 (extreme oversold on a relative basis), and equity market breadth deteriorated sharply with the % of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day MA dropping 17.69 percentage points in a single week.
Why It May Work
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Why It May Not Work
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Timeline
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