20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT tagged its 52-week low at $83.02 on May 19 and reversed with a surge in volume — a potential seller-exhaustion signal. RSI at 37.5 is approaching oversold territory while extreme equity call-buying (put/call 0.49) offers a contrarian case for a tactical bounce toward the 50-day MA at $86.13.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT printed its 52-week low at $83.02 on May 19 then reversed sharply the next session on elevated volume (44.3M shares on May 20), preceded by a high-volume capitulation candle on May 15 (50.8M shares, the heaviest session in weeks). Price is now sitting just 1.07% above the 52-week low.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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