20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT is testing a critical support shelf just 3% above its 52-week low ($83.97) while equity fear gauges (total put/call ratio 1.02, SPX put/call 1.26) signal near-extreme hedging demand — historically a contrarian trigger for flight-to-safety flows into long-duration Treasuries. MACD histogram has just flipped positive for the first time in weeks, suggesting early exhaustion of selling pressure.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT closed at $86.65, sitting 3.2% above its 52-week low support ($83.97) after a multi-week decline from $89+; MACD histogram turned positive (+0.048) for the first time since the selloff began, and SPX put/call ratio spiked to 1.26 — a contrarian fear extreme.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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