State Street Health Care Select
Investment Thesis
XLV's sharp May bounce is running into a wall of technical headwinds: a live death cross, persistent underperformance vs SPY, RSI near overbought, and extreme equity call buying — all pointing to exhaustion rather than a genuine breakout. The risk/reward for new longs here looks unfavorable.
Catalysts to Watch
XLV staged a 5.5% recovery from its May 8 low ($143.18) to a swing high of $151.35 on May 28, pushing RSI to 68.6 and reclaiming both the 50-day and 200-day MAs — while the equity put/call ratio collapsed to 0.42, flagging extreme call-side positioning.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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