META has suffered a severe post-earnings capitulation, declining ~25% from recent highs to $539 following a capex guidance raise that spooked investors, yet the core advertising business remains structurally dominant with Instagram at 2B DAUs and AI agent early traction (1M weekly business users). At current prices, the market is pricing in near-worst-case outcomes on capex ROI and legal liability simultaneously, creating an asymmetric entry point where stabilization of macro headwinds (Fed pause, Middle East de-escalation) and any positive AI monetization signal could drive a sharp mean reversion toward the $600+ range. The post-earnings selling climax at $532 followed by a partial recovery to $539 suggests exhaustion of the most aggressive sellers, making now a tactically attractive entry for a 2-3 month recovery trade.