20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT's bounce off its 52-week low has stalled right under the 50-day MA with the stochastic pinned at an extreme overbought reading and volume fading — a reversal back toward range support looks favored while the primary trend (below both MAs, confirmed death cross) stays intact.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT bounced from the August 17 52-week low ($81.35) to a marginal bounce-high close of $83.47 on August 25, but the advance came on contracting volume and stalled one day later just under the 50-day MA ($84.00), with the stochastic oscillator pinned near 92.
Why It May Work
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Why It May Not Work
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Timeline
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