State Street Consumer Discretio
Investment Thesis
XLY is deeply overbought (RSI 83.92) after a near-vertical 9-session rally, yet remains in a structural death cross with consumer discretionary still underperforming SPY on a 12-month basis — a classic setup for mean reversion back toward the 50-day MA at $113.70.
Catalysts to Watch
XLY surged ~14% in just 9 trading sessions (from ~$105.66 to $120.41), pushing RSI(14) to an extreme 83.92 reading, while the death cross remains in effect and the XLY/SPY ratio is still trading below its 200-day moving average.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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