Tesla shares
Investment Thesis
Tesla's current price of $449.06 reflects excessive optimism about AI/robotaxi monetization despite mounting evidence of execution delays and core business deterioration. With FSD adoption at only 12% and the shift to subscription-only model potentially suppressing uptake, combined with 'agonizingly slow' Cybercab production warnings and second consecutive year of vehicle sales declines, the $1.45T valuation (P/E ~290) is vulnerable to compression as 2026 reality diverges from AI promises.
Catalysts to Watch
Q4 earnings January 28, FSD subscription adoption rates post-February 14, Cybercab production volumes April 2026, robotaxi fleet expansion metrics, autonomous driving milestone delays, competitive market share data from BYD
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Timeline
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