20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
The TLT/SPY relative-strength ratio has crashed to an RSI of just 5.56 — one of the most extreme oversold readings possible — while TLT price has spent four weeks coiling in an ultra-tight $86–87 range. This is a classic contrarian mean-reversion setup: bones of the bear are visible, yet the ratio exhaustion and a MACD histogram turning positive argue that a tactical bounce is building.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT/SPY ratio RSI collapsed to 5.56 (extreme relative exhaustion), MACD histogram turned positive (+0.117) after a sustained negative reading, and price compressed into a narrow $86–87 consolidation band with ATR at a 12-month low of $0.61.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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