20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT's relative strength vs. SPY has cratered to a RSI reading of 12.77 — an historically extreme oversold level — while price rests just 2.5% above its 52-week low. The risk of mean reversion is rising, even as the primary trend remains bearish.
Catalysts to Watch
TLT/SPY ratio RSI collapsed to 12.77 (extreme oversold territory) and TLT is trading 2.5% above its 52-week low of $83.97, with MACD histogram at nearly zero (-0.001) signaling momentum deceleration.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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