20+ Year US Treasuries
Investment Thesis
TLT is pressing against its 52-week low support at $83.02 with stochastic at 8/6 (deeply oversold) and RSI at 34 — classic conditions for a tactical mean-reversion bounce toward the 50-day MA at $85.50 and beyond, though the dominant trend remains structurally bearish (death cross, below both moving averages).
Catalysts to Watch
TLT dropped ~3.5% in seven trading days from the June 29 high of $87.45 to $84.36, pushing the stochastic to a deeply oversold 8/6 and RSI to 34, with price now sitting just 1.6% above the 52-week low of $83.02 — a well-defined technical support shelf.
Why It May Work
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Timeline
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