20-yr US Treasuries (TMF)

Key Updates

TMF has extended its sharp decline, falling 10.41% since the July 1 report to $31.85, bringing year-to-date losses to 14.66%. The sell-off has accelerated as the 30-year Treasury yield sustained levels above 5% for its longest stretch since 2007, driven by structural inflation concerns, expanding federal deficits, and weakening foreign demand. The investment thesis remains firmly bearish, with the fund breaking below prior support levels and facing sustained pressure from both technical and fundamental forces.

Current Trend

The trend is decisively bearish across all measured timeframes. TMF has declined 3.22% over the past day, 13.33% over the past month, 15.09% over six months, and 14.66% year-to-date. The 10.41% drop since the last report on July 1 has erased the June recovery attempt and established a new lower bound, with the fund now trading well below the $35.55 level previously identified as a fragile support zone. Momentum is negative and accelerating, with no evidence of accumulation or trend reversal.

Investment Thesis

TMF is a leveraged vehicle whose value is inversely correlated with long-term Treasury yields. The prevailing macro environment—characterized by persistent inflation, rising real yields, heavy Treasury supply, and diminished foreign sponsorship—continues to exert severe downward pressure on long-duration bond prices. While elevated nominal and real yields may eventually attract value-oriented buyers, the current trajectory suggests yields have not yet peaked, and the structural headwinds facing long bonds remain intact. The investment thesis is therefore bearish until there is concrete evidence of yield stabilization or a credible catalyst for disinflation.

Thesis Status

The bearish thesis is fully validated and has strengthened since the prior report. The fund has broken decisively below previous support, long-dated yields have sustained multi-decade highs, and prominent long-term bond bulls have capitulated. The risk/opportunity profile has shifted further to the downside, as technical patterns in the underlying Treasury market now point to a plausible path toward 6% on the 30-year yield if the 5.2% resistance level is breached. No near-term catalysts for reversal are visible in the provided data.

Key Drivers

• Yield Surge: The 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5.2%, a critical technical resistance level, with analysts warning that a breach could open the path to 6%. Real yields have climbed to approximately 3%, their highest level since 2008, driven by inflation and budget deficits. Morningstar
• Structural Capitulation: Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, a multi-decade bond bull, has reversed his stance, forecasting a long-run U.S. inflation equilibrium of 3.5%-4.5% with risk above 5%, and warning that eroded disinflationary forces and rising debt will force higher risk premiums on government bonds. Morningstar
• Sustained High Yields: The 30-year yield has remained above 5% for 27 sessions in 2026, representing roughly 19% of trading days and the longest sustained run since 2007, reflecting investor anxiety over fiscal sustainability. Bloomberg
• Supply and Demand Imbalance: A 30-year bond auction is drawing the highest yield in 20 years, underscoring how expanding supply is forcing greater compensation. Heavy corporate issuance and reduced foreign buyer participation are compounding demand pressures. Bloomberg; Morningstar
• Commodity and Inflation Pressures: Renewed geopolitical tensions have pushed Brent crude above $94 per barrel, while the consumer-price index stands at 3.5%, reinforcing concerns that inflation will remain above target and compel investors to demand higher term premiums. Morningstar

Technical Analysis

TMF is in a severe downtrend with no identifiable support until potentially psychological levels well below the current price. The fund has collapsed through the $35.55 support zone identified in the July 1 analysis, confirming a lower high and lower low structure. The 30-year Treasury yield itself is forming an ascending triangle pattern with resistance near 5.2%; a confirmed breakout would likely correspond with accelerated downside in TMF. Momentum indicators are bearish, and the fund’s 3x leverage amplifies both daily and trending losses. The path of least resistance remains lower.

Bull Case

• Long-dated TIPS now offer real yields of approximately 3%, significantly above historical medians and representing a guaranteed return on top of inflation that may eventually attract institutional capital seeking diversification away from expensive equities, thereby stabilizing demand for long-duration sovereign debt. Morningstar
• The 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5.2%, a level described as critical technical resistance; failure to breach this threshold could stall the yield rally and provide relief to rate-sensitive ETFs such as TMF. Morningstar
• A prominent hedge-fund manager has characterized current long-duration fixed income as a "generational buying opportunity," suggesting that prevailing yields may already adequately compensate for inflation and fiscal risk over a long-term horizon. Morningstar
• The 30-year bond auction is drawing the highest yield in 20 years, which may attract yield-seeking domestic investors and pension funds, providing a floor for demand at these elevated compensation levels. Bloomberg
• The sustained selloff has pushed TMF down 14.66% year-to-date and 10.41% in under a month, a pace that may invite short-covering or tactical rebalancing flows if underlying yield momentum shows any sign of exhaustion. Morningstar

Bear Case

• Lacy Hunt, a long-term bond bull for over three decades, has capitulated and now forecasts a structural shift in the U.S. inflation equilibrium toward 3.5%-4.5%, with risk of episodes exceeding 5%, implying sustained upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and terminal rates. Morningstar
• The 30-year Treasury yield has remained above 5% for 27 trading sessions in 2026, the longest sustained run since 2007, reflecting deep-seated market anxiety over fiscal sustainability and persistent inflation that directly erodes the value of long-duration leveraged bond exposure. Bloomberg
• Technical analysis indicates an ascending triangle pattern in long-bond yields, with a sustained move above 5.2% potentially triggering a surge toward 6%, which would generate severe additional downside for TMF given its 3x leverage tothe long end of the Treasury curve. Morningstar
• U.S. national debt has surpassed 100% of gross domestic product, while reduced foreign buyer participation and war-related spending requests are eroding demand for Treasuries; simultaneously, heavy corporate debt issuance totaling nearly $500 billion from major technology firms is competing for fixed-income capital and adding further pressure to government bond valuations. Morningstar
• The latest 30-year Treasury bond auction is drawing the highest yield in at least 20 years, underscoring how expanding federal supply is forcing progressively greater returns and confirming a market environment where government borrowing needs consistently outstrip organic demand. Bloomberg