On Holding AG (ONON)

Key Updates

On Holding AG (ONON) has declined 4.08% since the September 22 report, closing at $29.61 as of October 1, 2026. This pullback follows a strong rebound period and comes amid persistent analyst skepticism despite the company's bullish investor day presentation. The stock remains under significant pressure year-to-date, down 36.30%, with the latest news cycle dominated by concerns over the Mbappé partnership's commercial viability, softening retail sales, and the sustainability of the company's premium no-discount strategy.

Current Trend

The stock is trading at $29.61, down 36.30% YTD, reflecting a persistent downtrend despite intermittent relief rallies. The 1-month gain of 3.89% suggests short-term buying interest, but the 6-month decline of 7.12% and the 5-day drop of 1.82% indicate that the broader bearish trend remains intact. The price is below the $30.87 level seen at the last report, retracing part of the 13.70% rebound. The stock continues to face resistance near the $31–$32 zone, while support is being tested around the $29.50–$30.00 area, with a break below potentially exposing the stock to further downside toward the September 2026 lows near $27.15.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis for ONON is balanced between the company's strong brand equity, premium positioning, and high-growth ambitions versus the significant challenges of entering the competitive soccer market, slowing growth in key regions, and maintaining a no-discount strategy amid softer retail demand. The company's long-term guidance of high-teens growth through 2029 and the announced first buyback signal management confidence, but key analysts such as Jefferies remain skeptical, arguing the targets are overly ambitious relative to the business model's scope. The stock's valuation, with a P/E ratio of 18.7, remains slightly above sportswear peers, reflecting high investor expectations that the company must meet.

Thesis Status

The thesis is currently under pressure. While the company's strategic moves—including the Mbappé partnership and the first buyback plan—demonstrate proactive management, the market's reaction has been muted, with the stock falling 4.08% since the last report. The bearish outlook from Jefferies, combined with the weakest retail sales since 2021 IPO and a softened sales outlook, indicates that the growth narrative is facing real-world headwinds. The no-discount strategy, while differentiating the brand, is being tested by a more promotional retail landscape, adding to the risk profile. The thesis remains intact only if the company can execute on its soccer expansion and maintain premium pricing without sacrificing growth.

Key Drivers

• Analyst skepticism: Jefferies maintains a bearish stance post-investor day, questioning the feasibility of long-term guidance (Bloomberg).
• Growth guidance: Company targets high-teens growth through 2029 and announced its first buyback (Bloomberg).
• Mbappé partnership: Signed to boost soccer credibility, but hurdles remain in converting visibility into sales (Reuters).
• Retail weakness: Weakest retail sales since 2021 IPO, prompting a softened sales outlook (WSJ).
• Pricing strategy: No-discount strategy faces test amid softer demand and increased competitor promotions (WSJ).

Technical Analysis

ONON trades at $29.61, down 4.08% since the last report, retracing part of the recent rebound. The stock is below its 1-month high and is testing the $29.50–$30.00 support zone. A break below this level could lead to a retest of the September low around $27.15. Resistance is seen near $31.00–$32.00, with a move above this zone needed to signal a potential trend reversal. The YTD decline of 36.30% underscores the persistent bearish momentum, while the 1-month gain of 3.89% suggests that any positive news could trigger short-term rallies. However, the overall technical structure remains bearish until a sustained break above the $32 resistance level occurs.

Bull Case

• Management's high-teens growth target through 2029 and first buyback plan signal confidence in long-term fundamentals (Bloomberg).
• Mbappé partnership significantly boosts brand visibility, creating potential for future sales growth in the soccer category (Reuters).
• M Science data shows On gained market share in the three months through August, indicating competitive strength (Reuters).
• The no-discount strategy preserves premium brand positioning and supports long-term pricing power (WSJ).
• Short-term momentum: 1-month gain of 3.89% and recent 13.70% rebound indicate buyer interest at lower levels (Bloomberg).

Bear Case

• Jefferies maintains a bearish outlook, arguing that long-term guidance is overly ambitious relative to the business model's scope (Bloomberg).
• Weakest retail sales since 2021 IPO and a softened sales outlook point to demand deterioration (WSJ).
• Soccer market entry faces significant hurdles, with Nike, Adidas, and Puma dominating; performance credibility cannot simply be bought (Reuters).
• The no-discount strategy poses risks if consumer demand weakens further or competitors gain share through aggressive discounting (WSJ).
• Valuation remains elevated at a P/E of 18.7, slightly above sportswear rivals, leaving limited room for error (Reuters).