US Global Jets index (JETS)

Key Updates

JETS has surged 6.32% to $31.12 since the February 3rd report, breaking decisively above the $29.00 resistance level that has constrained rallies since mid-January. This represents a 30.65% gain over six months and 10.87% year-to-date, with the index now trading at its highest level in the recent uptrend. The rally has been driven by exceptionally strong airline earnings reports, with United Airlines posting record-breaking ticket sales weeks in early 2026 and fourth-quarter results that significantly exceeded analyst expectations. The momentum reflects a fundamental shift in the airline industry's revenue mix, with premium seating and business travel demand accelerating into double-digit growth rates while corporate profits remain 94% above pre-pandemic levels, supporting sustained private aviation demand.

Current Trend

JETS has established a clear uptrend with the 10.87% YTD gain extending the six-month rally to 30.65%. The index has broken through critical resistance at $29.00 and is now trading at $31.12, establishing new highs for the recent advance. The technical structure shows progressive support levels at $29.00 (former resistance), $28.50, and $27.86 (January low). The 5-day gain of 11.34% demonstrates exceptional near-term momentum, while the 1-month advance of 7.20% confirms the sustainability of the uptrend. The breakout above $29.00 on strong volume and fundamental catalysts suggests the potential for continuation toward the $32-$33 zone, though the rapid pace of gains may warrant consolidation.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis for JETS centers on the structural transformation of airline economics driven by premium revenue growth and the parallel expansion of private aviation. Major carriers United and Delta are capturing 100% of industry profits through their focus on high-margin premium seating and business travelers, with United reporting 9% premium revenue growth in Q4 and double-digit business demand increases entering 2026. The private aviation sector has reached record levels with 3,878,836 global departures in 2025, up 4.6% year-over-year and 34% above 2019, supported by a 73% increase in ultra-high-net-worth individuals and 94% higher corporate profits since pre-pandemic levels. This dual-revenue model—commercial premium cabins and private jet utilization—creates a differentiated profit structure less vulnerable to economic downturns than traditional airline business models, as evidenced by United's planned delivery of 20 widebody aircraft in 2026, the most for any U.S. carrier in a single year since 1988.

Thesis Status

The investment thesis has strengthened materially since the previous report. United Airlines' announcement of record-breaking ticket sales weeks in early 2026, with the week ending January 4th marking the highest flown revenue week in company history and January 11th setting records for both ticketing and business sales, validates the premium demand acceleration thesis. The carrier's fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.10 per share exceeded the $2.94 consensus by 5.5%, while 2026 guidance of $12-$14 per share represents 13-32% growth from 2025's $10.62. The private aviation sector's record 2025 performance, with charter and fractional operators' flight segments up 45.2% versus 2019, confirms the structural shift in business travel preferences. The business jets market research indicating growth through 2033 driven by sustainable aviation fuel, advanced avionics, and alternative ownership models provides long-term visibility. The thesis that premium revenue and private aviation would drive airline profitability is now being realized in reported earnings rather than projected trends.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst driving JETS higher is the record-breaking commercial airline performance, with United Airlines reporting the highest flown revenue week in company history during early January 2026 and fourth-quarter operating revenue of $15.4 billion (up 4.8% year-over-year). United's premium seating revenue grew 9% in Q4 and 11% for the full year, while business demand is up in the double digits entering 2026. The meaningful rebound in corporate air travel at the start of 2026 following a depressed end to 2025 represents a critical inflection point for the most profitable revenue segment. The private aviation sector continues its expansion, with global private jet flights reaching a record 3,878,836 departures in 2025, up 4.6% from 2024 and 34% above 2019 levels, driven by a 73% increase in ultra-high-net-worth individuals. The business jets market forecast through 2033 identifies sustainable aviation fuel, advanced avionics, and alternative ownership models as key growth drivers, while business jet brokerage firms report 33% year-over-year growth, indicating robust transaction activity.

Technical Analysis

JETS has executed a decisive breakout above the $29.00 resistance level that capped rallies throughout January, now trading at $31.12 with strong momentum indicators. The 5-day surge of 11.34% represents the strongest short-term performance in the recent uptrend, while the 1-month gain of 7.20% confirms sustained buying pressure. The index has established a clear support structure with the former resistance at $29.00 now serving as initial support, followed by $28.50 and the January low at $27.86. The six-month advance of 30.65% demonstrates the strength of the intermediate-term trend, while the 10.87% YTD gain positions JETS favorably relative to broader market indices. The breakout occurred on fundamental catalysts rather than technical factors alone, suggesting institutional participation. Immediate resistance appears at $32.00, with the $32-$33 zone representing the next technical target. The rapid pace of gains may prompt near-term consolidation, but the underlying momentum structure remains constructive with no bearish divergences evident in the price action.

Bull Case

• United Airlines reported record-breaking performance with the week ending January 4th marking the highest flown revenue week in company history, demonstrating exceptional demand momentum entering 2026 that validates premium pricing power and supports sustained profitability for major carriers comprising JETS holdings.
• United's 2026 earnings guidance of $12-$14 per share represents 13-32% growth from 2025's $10.62, with premium seating revenue growing 9% in Q4 and business demand up in the double digits, indicating the structural shift toward high-margin revenue is accelerating rather than plateauing.
• Global private jet flights reached a record 3,878,836 departures in 2025, up 34% above 2019 levels, driven by a 73% increase in ultra-high-net-worth individuals and 94% higher corporate profits, with charter and fractional operators adding approximately 100 new aircraft in 2026, demonstrating sustained investment in capacity expansion.
• Corporate air travel has rebounded meaningfully at the start of 2026 following a depressed end to 2025, with business fares being among the most profitable due to premium pricing, creating a tailwind for major carriers like United and Delta that dominate industry profitability.
• The business jets market forecast through 2033 identifies sustainable aviation fuel, aircraft electrification, and alternative ownership models as transformative growth drivers, with increasing global wealth and high net-worth individuals supporting long-term demand expansion beyond cyclical economic factors.

Bear Case

• United Airlines absorbed a $250 million revenue impact from the U.S. government shutdown that disrupted air traffic in Q4 2025, demonstrating vulnerability to regulatory and political disruptions that could recur and pressure margins despite strong underlying demand trends.
• Tyson Foods simultaneously increased corporate jet spending to $3.68 million while closing facilities and laying off nearly 5,000 workers in January, highlighting potential political and social backlash against private aviation that could result in regulatory restrictions or taxation changes affecting the sector.
• United and Delta are expected to account for 100% of airline industry profits in 2025 as they continue to outperform competitors, indicating extreme concentration risk where any operational or competitive challenges at these two carriers could disproportionately impact JETS performance.
• United's adjusted pre-tax margin reached 8.5%, still trailing Delta's 9.5%, suggesting margin expansion may be more limited than revenue growth and that competitive pressures could intensify as budget carriers like Southwest and Spirit adopt premium seating strategies.
• Light jets account for 43.6% of worldwide flights, indicating the market is driven more by practical business travel than luxury excess, making private aviation demand vulnerable to corporate cost-cutting if economic conditions deteriorate or if remote work trends reduce business travel necessity.