GraniteShares 2x Short COIN Dai (CONI)

Key Updates

Executive Summary: CONI rose 2.81% since the last report, extending a fragile three-session bounce from $29.43 to $33.64. Despite this short-term uptick, the fund remains down 50.69% YTD and 50.18% over six months, confirming that the underlying leveraged decay and sustained COIN strength through the summer have structurally overwhelmed any tactical bearish positioning. The magnitude of the 5-day (-36.58%) and 1-month (-31.50%) losses indicates that COIN's rally has continued largely unabated even after the disappointing Q2 print, and the current bounce should be treated as a minor pause rather than a trend reversal.

Current Trend

CONI's performance profile remains deeply negative across all longer time horizons: YTD -50.69%, 6-month -50.18%, 1-month -31.50%, and 5-day -36.58%, contrasted against a modest +2.81% gain over the last 24 hours and since the prior report. Back-solving from the reported percentage changes implies COIN-driven reference levels for CONI of approximately $49 one month ago, $53 five days ago, and $68 at the start of the year — versus $33.64 today. This confirms a severe, multi-month downtrend for the inverse product, consistent with a persistent COIN uptrend, punctuated only by a recent three-session recovery (+8.15%, +2.80%, +2.81%) from a local low of $29.43. Immediate support sits at $29.43; resistance is likely in the $36–40 area, well below the much higher levels implied earlier in the year, underscoring the depth of the prevailing downtrend.

Investment Thesis

CONI is a 2x daily short leveraged ETF against Coinbase (COIN), designed for tactical, short-holding-period bearish bets rather than long-term exposure, given the compounding effects of daily rebalancing. The bull case for CONI rests on continued COIN weakness driven by deteriorating transaction revenue, crypto market volatility, and ETF outflows. The bear case for CONI (i.e., COIN strength) is rooted in the exchange's resilient market share, diversifying subscription revenue base, and broader crypto market sentiment.

Thesis Status

The bearish COIN thesis has not materialized over the medium term despite the confirmed Q2 earnings miss reported on 30 July 2026 (wider-than-expected loss, third consecutive quarter of top- and bottom-line misses). CONI's steep YTD and 6-month losses indicate COIN shares have continued to appreciate through the summer, likely reflecting market focus on Coinbase's record trading market share rather than near-term financial results. The recent 2.81% uptick in CONI is too small relative to the cumulative decline to signal a thesis reversal; the structural risk of holding a 2x daily inverse product through a sustained uptrend in the underlying remains the dominant factor.

Key Drivers

The most significant fundamental driver remains Coinbase's disappointing Q2 2026 results, including a net loss of $359.5 million (versus a $1.43 billion profit a year earlier), revenue decline to $1.2 billion from $1.5 billion, and softening transaction revenue amid range-bound bitcoin prices and sustained ETF outflows. This should theoretically support CONI's investment case; however, the fund's continued decline suggests COIN shares have not sustained downside pressure from this print. Separately, the launch of new single-stock leveraged/inverse ETFs by Tradr reflects an expanding competitive landscape for leveraged trading vehicles, which could dilute flows into existing products like CONI, though it does not directly reference Coinbase or CONI.

Technical Analysis

CONI trades at $33.64, up from a recent low of $29.43 over three consecutive sessions (+8.15%, +2.80%, +2.81%), suggesting short-term stabilization or short-covering. However, this bounce is minor against the backdrop of a much higher price base implied one month ago (~$49) and at the start of the year (~$68), confirming that the dominant trend remains sharply downward. Key support is at $29.43; resistance is likely near $36–40, a level that would need to be reclaimed to suggest a more durable shift in short-term momentum. The steep 5-day and 1-month losses indicate elevated volatility and significant leveraged decay risk for holders.

Bull Case

• Coinbase reported a wider-than-expected Q2 2026 loss of $1.36 per share versus a 17-cent consensus estimate, with revenue declining to $1.2 billion from $1.5 billion year-over-year — a third consecutive quarter of misses on both lines (CNBC).
• Coinbase's transaction revenue softened amid a range-bound bitcoin market and sustained ETF outflows, pointing to continued near-term revenue pressure (CNBC).
• Coinbase's net loss widened dramatically to $359.5 million from a $1.43 billion profit in the prior-year period, signaling a sharp deterioration in profitability (CNBC).
• The expanding leveraged/inverse ETF market, evidenced by Tradr's new single-stock products, reflects growing investor demand for tactical bearish trading vehicles, which could sustain interest in inverse