BABA-W (9988.HK)

Key Updates

BABA-W surged 3.41% to $124.50, recovering from seven consecutive sessions of losses and partially reversing the recent selloff that had pushed shares to multi-week lows. The rally follows Alibaba's unveiling of its Zhenwu M890 AI chip, which delivers 3x the performance of its predecessor, reinforcing the company's commitment to AI infrastructure despite near-term profitability pressures. While the stock remains 12.69% below year-to-date highs and continues trading below the critical $125 psychological resistance level, the technical bounce suggests potential stabilization after the recent decline.

Current Trend

BABA-W remains in a confirmed downtrend, declining 12.69% year-to-date and 17.82% over the past six months. The stock has failed to establish sustainable support above the $125 psychological level, which has transitioned from support to resistance. Recent price action shows extreme volatility, with a seven-session losing streak (totaling approximately -8% decline) followed by today's 3.41% rebound. The 1-month decline of 4.67% and 5-day decline of 1.19% indicate persistent selling pressure despite today's recovery. The stock remains structurally weak, trading well below year-to-date highs and showing no clear signs of trend reversal.

Investment Thesis

The investment thesis centers on Alibaba's transformation from a traditional e-commerce platform to an AI-powered technology conglomerate, with cloud computing and artificial intelligence serving as primary growth engines. Management has articulated an "extremely clear" return on investment over three to five years for AI investments, despite near-term profitability pressures. Morgan Stanley projects cloud revenue growth of 42% in fiscal Q1 and 45% for fiscal year 2027, indicating robust demand for Alibaba's infrastructure services. The company operates at full service capacity utilization, suggesting strong underlying demand. However, this thesis faces headwinds from intensifying competition in food delivery from Meituan and JD.com, substantial AI training costs for the Qwen model, and revenue growth that has decelerated to 3% year-over-year, missing analyst expectations.

Thesis Status

The investment thesis remains intact but under pressure. The Zhenwu M890 chip launch demonstrates tangible progress in AI infrastructure development, validating management's strategic focus on technology differentiation. However, the fiscal Q4 results reveal the severity of near-term profitability challenges, with adjusted net profit collapsing from 29.85 billion yuan to just 86 million yuan year-over-year. The cloud business shows strong momentum with Morgan Stanley's positive assessment across all key metrics, supporting the long-term transformation narrative. Yet revenue growth of 3% significantly underperformed expectations, raising questions about the company's ability to maintain market share in core businesses while investing heavily in AI. The thesis requires patience as the company navigates the 3-5 year investment cycle, with execution risk elevated given competitive pressures and regulatory uncertainties in China's technology sector.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst is Alibaba's AI infrastructure buildout, highlighted by the Zhenwu M890 chip delivering 3x performance improvement over the previous generation. Cloud computing momentum remains robust, with Morgan Stanley projecting 42% growth in fiscal Q1 and 45% for fiscal year 2027, while management reports full capacity utilization. However, profitability faces significant headwinds from adjusted net profit declining to 86 million yuan from 29.85 billion yuan year-over-year, driven by AI training costs and competitive pressures in food delivery. Revenue growth decelerated to 3% year-over-year, missing analyst expectations of 246.475 billion yuan. Analyst sentiment has improved, with both Morgan Stanley and Nomura raising price targets following the cloud business assessment.

Technical Analysis

BABA-W is attempting to reclaim the $125 psychological level after today's 3.41% rally to $124.50, but remains in a defined downtrend. The stock broke below $125 during the recent seven-session selloff and has yet to establish a sustained close above this critical resistance. Year-to-date performance of -12.69% and six-month decline of -17.82% confirm the bearish trend structure. Near-term resistance sits at $125-$127.60 (previous rebound high), while support has likely shifted to the $120.40 level (recent multi-session low). The price action shows high volatility, with alternating sharp declines and rebounds, suggesting institutional repositioning rather than clear directional conviction. Volume patterns during the recent selloff indicate distribution, requiring multiple sessions of higher closes to confirm trend reversal. The stock needs to reclaim and hold above $127.60 to negate the recent breakdown and challenge the $130-$135 zone.

Bull Case

• Cloud revenue projected to grow 42% in fiscal Q1 and 45% for fiscal year 2027, with Morgan Stanley confirming the cloud unit met all key assessment metrics, positioning Alibaba as a primary beneficiary of China's cloud infrastructure buildout and AI adoption wave.
• Zhenwu M890 AI chip delivers 3x performance improvement, demonstrating technological competitiveness and reducing dependency on foreign chip suppliers while potentially lowering AI training costs over time.
• Management articulates "extremely clear" return on investment over 3-5 years for AI investments, with full service capacity utilization indicating strong underlying demand and pricing power in cloud services.
• Both Morgan Stanley and Nomura raised price targets following cloud business assessment, signaling improved sell-side confidence and potential for multiple expansion as profitability pressures ease.
• Reported net profit doubled to 25.48 billion yuan, and while driven by mark-to-market gains, demonstrates the value of Alibaba's strategic investment portfolio and potential for future monetization.

Bear Case

• Adjusted net profit collapsed from 29.85 billion yuan to 86 million yuan year-over-year, representing a 99.7% decline that signals severe margin compression and raises questions about the sustainability of current AI investment levels.
• Revenue of 243.38 billion yuan missed analyst expectations of 246.475 billion yuan, with 3% year-over-year growth indicating market share losses and weakening competitive positioning in core e-commerce businesses.
• Intensifying competition from Meituan and JD.com in food delivery continues to pressure profitability, requiring sustained investment to defend market share in a low-margin, highly competitive segment.
• Losses in the "all others" category driven by Qwen model training and consumer app costs are expected to narrow but remain negative in the coming quarter, extending the profitability recovery timeline beyond initial expectations.
• Year-to-date decline of 12.69% and six-month decline of 17.82% reflect persistent selling pressure and negative market sentiment, with the stock failing to hold the $125 psychological support level despite positive AI developments, indicating fundamental concerns outweigh technological progress.